Denial Still Exists

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/climate-scientists-forecast-more-heat-fires-and-floods/article1671364/

Floods, fires, melting ice and feverish heat: From smoke-choked Moscow to water-soaked Pakistan and the High Arctic, the planet seems to be having a midsummer breakdown. It’s not just a portent of things to come, scientists say, but a sign of troubling climate change already under way.
The weather-related cataclysms of July and August fit patterns predicted by climate scientists, the Geneva-based World Meteorological Organization says – although those scientists always shy from tying individual disasters directly to global warming.

If you read the news, you will know Russia is suffering through the hottest summer ever, Pakistan has had the heaviest monsoon rains ever, China is flooding, and the Arctic glaciers are calving.  Not to mention that the Arctic was /is scarily warm.

What did the much maligned 2007  IPCC predict?  

The 2007 IPCC report predicted a doubling of disastrous droughts in Russia this century and cited studies foreseeing catastrophic fires during dry years. It also said Russia would suffer large crop losses.

The 2007 IPCC report said rains have grown heavier for 40 years over northern Pakistan and predicted greater flooding this century in southern Asia’s monsoon region.

The IPCC reported in 2007 that rains had increased in northwest China by up to 33 per cent since 1961, and floods nationwide had increased sevenfold since the 1950s. It predicted still more frequent flooding this century.

Hmmmnnnn - could it be ?  Naaah - those scientists with PhDs in climatatology who publish in peer reveiwed journals must be wrong.   So say the commenters on the above article.  Following is a sample:

In the past people blamed demons and witches for the weather. In our so called 'englightened age' people blame fossil fuels. I don't understand why so many people have a psychological need to believe in such claptrap.

Here come the "global warming" freaks labeled as scientists out of the wood work again.  We are getting a hot-spell in August and leave to these windbags to spin it into a crisis.  Better raise taxes and mail your paychecks to the government so they can solve the problem.  Stupid socialist/marxist windbags.

 The majority of the Anthropogenic Global Warming clymers are ignorant fools following a core of criminal elite. If they ever grow a brain, they will become dangerous.

All comments published by people who do peer reveiwed research in climatology, of course.  I'm beginning to think that science education in high school needs to be strengthened.  But more information is not going to convince deniers like those quoted above.  In fact, if you load them with too much information, they will move directly to despair from denial - and sit around apathetically saying "it is too late - what is the point of trying - we might as well keep living the way we do."   

If you are a climate change activist,  try to work through groups to faciliate lifestyle change and political activism. (Or create a  group with a positive outlook such as a Transistion Town in your community. ) Group members will support each other  - therfore, change will be easier for the entire group.  Potential groups - churches (they have an interest in social and climate justice);  universities (they have a pool of educated people and students who care about the environment);  and business groups (many win win situations exist that save money and reduce greenhouse gas emissions). (I'm sure more  potential types of groups exist that I haven't thought of.)  Don't focus on past disasters - focus on what we can do now and in the future.  Borrow from the  Transition Town ethos - concentrate on both  internal  pyschological change and external change - and keep your message positive. 

Don't let your own despair wear you down: look after yourself and keep working. You have allies - and climate change activism is a job worth doing.   

Scarier Than I First Thought

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/europe/2010/08/20108520215744896.html

No details about the munitions involved were disclosed but the armed forces have said that a naval logistics base near Moscow had been destroyed by the ongoing inferno.  Russian media reported as many as 200 planes may have been destroyed at the naval air base....In Sarov, firefighters have focused on beating flames back from the top-secret Russian Federal Nuclear Research Centre.  A Sarov news website on Thursday cited local officials as saying a wall of fire had been broken down into several smaller blazes.   The officials said the closest blaze was still several kilometres from the research facilities and as a precaution all hazardous materials had been evacuated.

Wow - an even even scarier scenario than was apparent at first reading the news.  

Some Perspective

What would the Russian drought look like  if it had occurred in North America?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1568

One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/7/890455/-This-week-in-science

To put this in rough perspective -- and note this is not absolutely precise, it's purely ballpark to give you some feel for what the Russian people are enduring -- if this heat wave was hitting North America, it would be near 100°F in Fairbanks, Alaska. Most of Canada would be baking at 100° or higher, the northeast, from Maine to the Great Lakes region would be hitting upwards of 105° everyday, even the nightly low in the massive urban heat islands of New York and Chicago would be over 90°! The midwest grain belt and parts of the Pacific Northwest would not see a drop of rain for two months and pushing as high as 110° in places. The desert southwest, even some of the higher elevations of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, would be as uninhabitable as Death Valley or the Sahara.

It would mean nation-wide massive power brownouts, unprecedented crop failures, water rationing like you have never seen, record wildfires raging in dozens of states, thousands of deaths [Correction: Dr. Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground informs me it would probably more like tens of thousands of deaths] and life threatening heat related illness, roads and highways clogged with broken-down, over-heated cars, and emergency services stretched beyond the breaking point across the US and Canada.

So nothing to worry about, right?  Well, it's gonna affect the price of your pasta and toast.

http://www.straight.com/article-337565/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-russian-response-wildfires-gives-early-glimpse-climate-change-impact

At least 20 percent of Russia’s wheat crop has already been destroyed by the drought, the extreme heat—circa 40 º C for several weeks now—and the wildfires. The export ban is needed, explained Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, because “we shouldn’t allow domestic prices in Russia to rise, we need to preserve our cattle and build up supplies for next year”. If anybody starves, it won’t be Russians.

This is the vision of the future that has the soldiers and security experts worried: a world where access to enough food becomes a big political and strategic issue even for developed countries that do not have big surpluses at home. It would be a very ugly world indeed, teeming with climate refugees and failed states and interstate conflicts over water (which is just food at one remove).

What is happening in Russia now, and its impacts elsewhere, give us an early glimpse of what that world will be like. And although nobody can say for certain that the current disaster there is due to climate change, it certainly could be.

Late last year, Britain’s Hadley Centre for Climate Change produced a world map showing how different countries will be affected by the rise in average global temperature over the next 50 years. The European countries that the Hadley map predicts will be among the hardest hit—Greece, Spain, and Russia—are precisely the ones have suffered most from extreme heat, runaway forest fires, and wildfires in the past few years.

The main impact of global warming on human beings will be on the food supply, and eating is a non-negotiable activity. Today Russia, tomorrow the world.

Here's a novel thought - why don't we take measures to reduce greenhosue gas emissions now?