From Al Jazeera

Remember those floods and droughts in  2010?  Wildfires around Moscow?  Flooding in Pakistan and Oz?  So does this writer from Al Jazeera.

2010 proved to be a model year for what the planet can expect as the result of climate change. Huge floods occurred in Pakistan, Australia, and California. A record-breaking heat wave in Russia, and the severe die-offs of coral reefs underscored the acceleration of the global trends in Climate Change. Last year was also the 34th consecutive year that global temperatures have been above the 20th-century average, and nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 due to what scientists attribute to a 40 per cent increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution began....On February 16 two new studies published in the journal Nature confirmed the link between climate change and more extreme precipitation events. Based on measurements taken from over 6,000 weather stations, results revealed that human-induced heating of the planet has already made rainfall more intense, which has led to more severe floods.  The studies suggest that the planet's climatic system may well be more sensitive to small temperature increases than was previously believed....Warmer atmospheric temperatures means increasing moisture in the air, and thus greater amounts in precipitation events.

But isn't this nasty winter proof that the climate isn't warming?  In a word, no.

The current string of harsh winters around much of the globe for the last decade is also attributed to climate change, according to scientists who published a report in December.

"Recent severe winters [in Europe] like last year’s or the one of 2005-2006 do not conflict with the global warming picture, but rather supplement it," Vladimir Petoukhov, lead author of the study and a physicist at the Potsdam Institute reported.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/features/2011/03/201132141536987194.html

We're going to have wilder, more extreme weather events as cliame change continues.

This Is What Drought Looks Like in China

Water Woes

http://www.ogc.gov.bc.ca/documents/directives/dir_2010-05_Suspension_of_Surface_Water_Withdrawals.pdf

SUSPENSION OF SURFACE WATER WITHDRAWALS (PEACE RIVER)
REQUIREMENT:
Effective immediately, the BC Oil and Gas Commission (Commission) is requiring suspension of waterwithdrawal from rivers, lakes and streams, previously approved by the Commission under Section 8 of the Water Act, for the following basins within the Peace River Watershed.

I said climate change would affect everything we do.  What if this summer's  "drought" bcomes the new normal ?  We're going to have to reduce personal and industrial wataer consumption in the future - why not start now?

Climate Change Will Change Everything

More accurately, the effects of climate change will change everything.  For example, from the pages of that environmental rag, the Globe and Mail, an article in today's edition (Friday, August 13, 2010 page B3) describes the problems Brookfield Renewable Power fund is having.  The fund has

had a dismal 2010 as near-record-low precipitation last winter and spring in Ontario and Quebec has deprived it of the water levels needed to turn its turbines.  The winter's sparse snowfall and the dry spring are posing challenges for hydroelectricity producers acrosss Central Canada, drawing down Hydro-Quebec's massive reservoirs...and hammering production and financial results of investor-owned power companies. ....still, he said the company is in a strong financial position to weather the drought, and is maintaining its distributions to unit holders in anticipation of a return to more normal precipitation levels.

Brookfield Renewable Power Fund will be in trouble if  precipitation levels have changed their patterns, and this "drought" is the new normal. (Just ask the Australians about a new normal - drought, that is.)  Climate change models predict that rainfall patterns will shift  -  be more unpredictable  - and more variable as the temperature climbs.

It might be a good idea to plan for increased variability in rainfall patterns among other things  - and to take meaningful steps to mitigate the effects fo climate change.  It will take years - decades - to change the  physical infrastructure of our lives - so we had better start now.    Continuing denial is not a good option - if one is concerned about the long term viability of humnaity.

Some Perspective

What would the Russian drought look like  if it had occurred in North America?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1568

One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/7/890455/-This-week-in-science

To put this in rough perspective -- and note this is not absolutely precise, it's purely ballpark to give you some feel for what the Russian people are enduring -- if this heat wave was hitting North America, it would be near 100°F in Fairbanks, Alaska. Most of Canada would be baking at 100° or higher, the northeast, from Maine to the Great Lakes region would be hitting upwards of 105° everyday, even the nightly low in the massive urban heat islands of New York and Chicago would be over 90°! The midwest grain belt and parts of the Pacific Northwest would not see a drop of rain for two months and pushing as high as 110° in places. The desert southwest, even some of the higher elevations of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, would be as uninhabitable as Death Valley or the Sahara.

It would mean nation-wide massive power brownouts, unprecedented crop failures, water rationing like you have never seen, record wildfires raging in dozens of states, thousands of deaths [Correction: Dr. Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground informs me it would probably more like tens of thousands of deaths] and life threatening heat related illness, roads and highways clogged with broken-down, over-heated cars, and emergency services stretched beyond the breaking point across the US and Canada.

So nothing to worry about, right?  Well, it's gonna affect the price of your pasta and toast.

http://www.straight.com/article-337565/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-russian-response-wildfires-gives-early-glimpse-climate-change-impact

At least 20 percent of Russia’s wheat crop has already been destroyed by the drought, the extreme heat—circa 40 º C for several weeks now—and the wildfires. The export ban is needed, explained Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, because “we shouldn’t allow domestic prices in Russia to rise, we need to preserve our cattle and build up supplies for next year”. If anybody starves, it won’t be Russians.

This is the vision of the future that has the soldiers and security experts worried: a world where access to enough food becomes a big political and strategic issue even for developed countries that do not have big surpluses at home. It would be a very ugly world indeed, teeming with climate refugees and failed states and interstate conflicts over water (which is just food at one remove).

What is happening in Russia now, and its impacts elsewhere, give us an early glimpse of what that world will be like. And although nobody can say for certain that the current disaster there is due to climate change, it certainly could be.

Late last year, Britain’s Hadley Centre for Climate Change produced a world map showing how different countries will be affected by the rise in average global temperature over the next 50 years. The European countries that the Hadley map predicts will be among the hardest hit—Greece, Spain, and Russia—are precisely the ones have suffered most from extreme heat, runaway forest fires, and wildfires in the past few years.

The main impact of global warming on human beings will be on the food supply, and eating is a non-negotiable activity. Today Russia, tomorrow the world.

Here's a novel thought - why don't we take measures to reduce greenhosue gas emissions now?

Pray for Rain

http://www2.news.gov.bc.ca/news_releases_2009-2013/2010ENV0024-000542.htm

Environment Minister Barry Penner says below average snowpacks across British Columbia indicate significant potential for low stream flows and water-supply shortages to develop this summer. As a result, Penner says the B.C. government is developing a 2010 Drought Response Plan to guide government actions for low stream flows and drought conditions. Given the current low snowpack conditions, notice of potential drought is included in this bulletin, although should wet weather materialize in May and June, it could reduce the risk.

Forest fires, anyone?  Remember 2003?  Calling these weather conditions "drought" implies they are temporary.  Meet the new normal as climate change worsens.  I'm very glad the City of Kamloops voted in favour of water meters:  we're some of the piggiest comsumers of water in the world.  And, we cannot afford to waste water and have our usage exceed the natural replenishment of the acquifers and water systems.  Our well being depends upon the well being of the  environment - not the other way around.

Speaking of Climate Change and Water

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/regional-news/Warm+conditions+signal+threat+2010+drought/2658949/story.html

B.C's provincial environment Minister Barry Penner advised British Columbians on Monday to brace for possible drought in many areas of the province this summer following two months of unusually warm and dry weather.  It could also mean an earlier start to the forest-fire season, Penner warned.

Snowpacks in river basins across B.C. are below normal levels and with only four to six weeks of winter remaining, time is running out to make up the difference.

If the situation persists, it could pose serious problems for cattle ranchers who need both rain to foster vegetation growth and snowpack to refill lakes and stock watering ponds that have not yet recovered from drought conditions in the summer of 2009.  Snowpacks range from 65 per cent to 95 per cent of normal, according to a bulletin issued by the ministry's river forecast centre.

"I want to give advance notice to local governments, to individuals as well as industry, that we may have some water supply challenges this summer, and it's a good time to start looking at ways we can reduce our consumption over the summer months," Penner said.

Didn't Gwynne Dyer and others suggest wars might be fought about access to water as climate change alters rainfall patterns?   I hope we are a  long way away from armed conflict - but I did overhear (OK - I eavesdropped) vendors at the local farmers' market discussing  verbal conflicts about water rights last summer.   2010 looks as if it will be worse at the moment - perhaps we should begin reducing greenhouse gas emssions in a meaningful manner and working on plans to adapt to it.   Just a thought....

The Redemption of Stephen Harper?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HINaBvThzWw

Please follow the link for a fun video (I cannot embed the html as I get a "form error" meassage) - the video will be worht watching - I promise....

Water Shortages in Canada Are Here

“Water disputes” can easily lead to trouble – even war – or so Gwynne Dyer suggests on page 20 of his newest book, Climate Wars. (Please see my earlier post on his book.)The World Bank is also fretting about water issues. They feel that “water management (In India) also remains a formidable challenge. The climate change projections indicate that even when farmers have largely adapted to arid cropping patterns, increased demand and consequent water stress could severely jeopardize livelihoods and diminish agricultural productivity.”
http://beta.worldbank.org/node/3675
Oh well – that’s India – always troubled – really poor - very far away. No disputes about water are going to arise here in Canada – right? Hmmmnnnnnn – ask Mike Rose of The Quilchena Cattle Company in Merritt, BC. http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20090922/KAMLOOPS0101/309229973/0/KAMLOOPS0102/rancher-calls-water-order-attack-on-agriculture
The BC Ministry of Environment ordered him to turn off his irrigation pumps on September 17, 2009. This order will cost him approximately $ 150, 000 for feed to replace the hay drying up without the irrigation water from the river. Understandably, Mr. Rose is hopping mad. I predict his problem – our problem – will worsen as climate change increases water scarcity. Global warming exacerbates and causes droughts: our lives are changing in a non linear fashion.