Maybe This is Why the Canadian Government Does Nothing

That’s because global warming has the potential to be a boon for profit seekers. The reason: a hotter climate could undermine crops, leading to smaller harvests and higher prices.  By studying temperature and yield records from 1980 to 2008, the team of academics from Columbia University and Stanford University estimated that the global trend to warmer temperatures has led wheat yields to be 5.5 per cent lower than they would have been had the climate been stable, and corn yields to be 3.8 per cent lower.

The reduction spread out over the world was the equivalent to losing the annual corn harvest from Mexico and the wheat harvest of France.  There was upside for Canadian farmers from the research. In their number crunching, the researchers noted no effect on yields in Canada and the U.S., because temperatures haven’t risen in those countries as they have elsewhere around the globe. “Pretty much every climate model says that [North American farmers] will get warming too,” but it has not yet been affected by the trend, Dr. Schlenker said.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/warming-trend-could-prove-boon-to-canadian-farming/article2015895/

Some boon - higher food prices - more hunger.  And, as a commenter on the Globe and Mail site said  "The economic consequences of the instability created when other nations face declining crop yields and difficulty feeding all of their citizens is more likely than not to offset any benefits. One only has to look back to the the economic meltdown two years ago to see how bad things "over there" can cause havoc here."

Food Budget Ever Expanding?

Spending more money at the grocery store?  Notice that your food budget is consuming more of your income?  It's not your imagination....

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 3.7% in March [2011] , the largest year-over-year advance since August 2009. This increase follows a 2.0% gain in February [2011].   http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/cpi-ipc/cpi-ipc-eng.htm

You can blame climate change food price increases.

 new research joins a small number of studies in which the fingerprint of climate change has been separated from natural variations in weather and other factors, demonstrating that the effects of warming have already been felt in the world..... scientists found that global wheat production was 33m tonnes (5.5%) lower than it would have been without warming and maize production was 23m tonnes (3.8%) lower. Specific countries fared worse than the average, with Russia losing 15% of its potential wheat crop, and Brazil, Mexico and Italy suffering above average losses. ...The losses drove up food prices by as much as 18.9%. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/may/05/food-prices-global-warming?intcmp=122

I predict food prices will continue to increase.  We don't seem to be worried about climate change - at least not enough to take  steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions .  So cliamte change will bite harder and harder - and food wil increase in price drastically.  Chew on that thought while you complain about your budget.

More Gloom - But From Jeffrey Sachs this Time

Jeffrey Sachs spoke at the University of Toronto.

Something very dramatic is happening,” he warned a rapt audience. “We’ve entered a new global scenario with respect to food, hunger and conflict … an era where things are likely to get tougher, not easier, in terms of production,” he said. “We’re hitting boundaries that are very important to understand and very important to counteract.”  Chief among those is the fact that global demand for food – and the agricultural commodities used to produce it – is outpacing the growth of supplies. The onset of climate change, which affects everything from the water supply to crop yields, is a ballooning wedge that will continue to force those trend lines in opposite directions, Dr. Sachs said.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/renowned-economists-outlook-darkens-on-global-food-prospects/article1957725/

And from the March 25, 2011 edition of the Economist:

Peak, rather than average, temperatures are what matter most to maize. Days above 30 degrees C are particualrly damaging. In otherwise normal conditons, every day the temperature is over this threshold dimishes yields by at least 1 5. Moreover, days where the ttemperature exceeds 32 degrees C do twice the harm of those at 31 degrees C. And during a drought, things are worse still.   page 91

What does this mean?  It looks like climate change has an viscious effect on crop failure: the hotter it gets the less food we get  - on an exponential scale.  It's going to be tougher to produce enough food to feed all of humanity.  That's you and me, folks.  Oh we won't starve in the rich countires.  Our food will be very expensive, that's all.

But what can we DO?  Well, there is a federal election looming on the horizon.  Educate your friends.  Go to candidate forums and ask questions.  Write letters to the editor.  Email leaders of the parties.  Vote strategically.  Tell everyone you want Canada to live up to its promises regarding money for small holders. 
We've been failing badly on keeping our promises as Dr Sachs points out.

Dr. Sachs is particularly incensed by the failure of G8 countries to come through on a $22-billion pledge made in 2008 to establish a World Bank fund to help smallholder farmers. Improving the livelihoods and farming practices of smallholders across a host of poor countries is seen by many economists as a critical approach to tackling hunger.Dr. Sachs said G8 countries are guilty of merely feigning support.  “The G8 lied. It made the promise but didn’t follow through,” Dr. Sachs said. “Your Mr. [Stephen] Harper is so big on accountability, but there is no accountability whatsoever and there is no money in the bank.”   Although Canada is a small country. Dr. Sachs said Canada bears a share of the responsibility for the fact that wars are getting more investment than agriculture, the boosting of which is a well-known ground stone of development.

Kick up a fuss!

Some Perspective

What would the Russian drought look like  if it had occurred in North America?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1568

One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/8/7/890455/-This-week-in-science

To put this in rough perspective -- and note this is not absolutely precise, it's purely ballpark to give you some feel for what the Russian people are enduring -- if this heat wave was hitting North America, it would be near 100°F in Fairbanks, Alaska. Most of Canada would be baking at 100° or higher, the northeast, from Maine to the Great Lakes region would be hitting upwards of 105° everyday, even the nightly low in the massive urban heat islands of New York and Chicago would be over 90°! The midwest grain belt and parts of the Pacific Northwest would not see a drop of rain for two months and pushing as high as 110° in places. The desert southwest, even some of the higher elevations of Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and West Texas, would be as uninhabitable as Death Valley or the Sahara.

It would mean nation-wide massive power brownouts, unprecedented crop failures, water rationing like you have never seen, record wildfires raging in dozens of states, thousands of deaths [Correction: Dr. Jeff Masters at WeatherUnderground informs me it would probably more like tens of thousands of deaths] and life threatening heat related illness, roads and highways clogged with broken-down, over-heated cars, and emergency services stretched beyond the breaking point across the US and Canada.

So nothing to worry about, right?  Well, it's gonna affect the price of your pasta and toast.

http://www.straight.com/article-337565/vancouver/gwynne-dyer-russian-response-wildfires-gives-early-glimpse-climate-change-impact

At least 20 percent of Russia’s wheat crop has already been destroyed by the drought, the extreme heat—circa 40 º C for several weeks now—and the wildfires. The export ban is needed, explained Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, because “we shouldn’t allow domestic prices in Russia to rise, we need to preserve our cattle and build up supplies for next year”. If anybody starves, it won’t be Russians.

This is the vision of the future that has the soldiers and security experts worried: a world where access to enough food becomes a big political and strategic issue even for developed countries that do not have big surpluses at home. It would be a very ugly world indeed, teeming with climate refugees and failed states and interstate conflicts over water (which is just food at one remove).

What is happening in Russia now, and its impacts elsewhere, give us an early glimpse of what that world will be like. And although nobody can say for certain that the current disaster there is due to climate change, it certainly could be.

Late last year, Britain’s Hadley Centre for Climate Change produced a world map showing how different countries will be affected by the rise in average global temperature over the next 50 years. The European countries that the Hadley map predicts will be among the hardest hit—Greece, Spain, and Russia—are precisely the ones have suffered most from extreme heat, runaway forest fires, and wildfires in the past few years.

The main impact of global warming on human beings will be on the food supply, and eating is a non-negotiable activity. Today Russia, tomorrow the world.

Here's a novel thought - why don't we take measures to reduce greenhosue gas emissions now?

Things Might Be Worse Part 2

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=warmer-nights-india-rice

Climate change has made nights warmer in India over the past decade, an ominous sign for the nation's vital rice crop.  This development could have a far-reaching impact on the yield of rice, causing a shortfall in an important staple crop in a crowded country already grappling with food security and inflationary issues....South Asia's agriculture will be hard hit by rising temperatures and irregular rainfall associated with climate change, according to experts. Since witnessing a near tripling of yields between the 1950s and 2000s due largely to the technological advances of the first green revolution, India's yields of rice have leveled off in recent years, according to data from the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization.

Oh - shit!